A new report concludes that global spending on oil and gas exploration and production must increase significantly in the coming years to ensure adequate supplies, even as demand growth slows.

Driving the news: The Saudi Arabia-based International Energy Forum and consultancy firm IHS Markit say investment is expected to reach nearly $ 525 billion by 2030 to balance the market.

The big picture: “Taken together, we see the need for $ 4.7 trillion in upstream investment over 2021-2030 to meet market needs and avoid a supply shortage, even as demand growth slows to a plateau. “, they conclude.

• “The next two years … are essential for sanctioning and allocating capital to new projects to ensure that an adequate supply of oil and gas is brought into service over the next 5-6 years.”

The plot: The amount of new development needed depends on the trajectory of climate policy.

• International Energy Agency analysis of pathways to net zero emissions in 2050 reveals that with policies that allow an aggressive shift away from fossil fuels, no new oil and gas fields need to be. approved.
• Under their net zero trajectory, the average annual upstream investment in 2021-2030 would be around $ 365 billion per year, most of it in existing fields but some in new fields already approved.

Yes, but: The current clean energy and climate policies of nations are nowhere in the universe of what would allow this net zero path.

• Within the framework of current policies and announced political scenarios, the IEA is also considering much larger investments, including in new areas.