Fears that the end of the leave scheme would lead to an increase in unemployment have proved to be unfounded.

This is, of course, the early days. There are still only quick estimates of what happened in October after the Treasury wage subsidies ended, but the signs are promising.

But rather than the expected increase in layoffs as companies have had to cope without government financial support, there has been a 160,000 increase in the number of salaried employees. During the three months of August to October, the number of vacancies reached a new record of nearly 1.2 million, up nearly 400,000 from the pre-pandemic level.

The Office for National Statistics said that during the period July to September – the months before the holiday was abolished – the number of people moving from one job to another was higher than ever, but it was the result of choice rather than people being forced to move because they had been made redundant.

Rishi Sunak said the numbers were a tribute to the holiday’s “tremendous success” and few would dispute that claim. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 4.3% in the three months leading up to September and is only slightly higher than it was when Covid-19 arrived in early 2020. ..