India’s industrial production at nine-month low at 1.4% in November 2021
India’s industrial production (PII) growth fell to 1.4% in November 2021, down from 4% in the previous month. Flash estimates for the index were 128.5. Production at the plant is at a nine-month low in November of this year.
The industrial production indices for the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors for November 2021 are 111.9, 129.6 and 147.9, respectively. These flash estimates will be revised in subsequent versions in accordance with IIP’s revision policy.
According to the classification based on use, the indices are 126.5 for primary goods, 81.2 for capital goods, 141.8 for intermediate goods and 142.5 for infrastructure goods. / construction for November 2021. In addition, the indices for durable consumer goods and non-durable consumer goods stand at 106.7 and 150.3 respectively for November 2021.
The flash estimates for November 2021, the first revision for October 2021, and the final revision for August 2021 were compiled at weighted response rates of 88%, 92% and 94% respectively.
CARE Ratings in its latest report said that “the impression of disappointing growth is despite some support from a negative base last year in the same month. Negative growth in the capital goods and Consumption, which is representative of a pick-up in demand, has limited overall growth in industrial production. There has been a general slowdown in growth dynamics in all sectors. In addition, weak growth in industrial production. Nine-month core sector of 3.1% year-on-year in November 2021 indicates poor performance of major sectors during the month. “
Going forward, the CARE memo says that “lingering concerns about viruses have dampened consumer sentiment. This is in addition to the already existing problems of high input costs and shortages of raw materials. Therefore, the outlook for all industrial activities appears dim and will largely depend on the severity of the new variant of the virus. In addition, the waning base effect will continue to reduce the number of growth. Taking these developments into account, we expect IIP growth to remain sluggish in the range of 2-3% over the next three months. “
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, “The IIP posted an expected moderation to low growth of 1.4% over nine months in November 2021, with the impact of slowing momentum after the holiday season Worsened by disruption caused by heavy rains in South India, amid persistent problems plaguing the automotive sector. The slowdown in industrial growth was widespread across all three sectors and six categories, with capital goods and durable consumer goods showing an even steeper year-on-year contraction in November 2021.
Discouragingly, mining and manufacturing output fell below pre-Covid levels in November 2021, with the latter led by capital goods and consumer durables, in line with the MPC’s premonitory view that the economic recovery had not achieved sustainability.